icon-s-facebook icon-s-xing icon-s-twitter icon-s-youtube icon-s-rss icon-s-linkedin icon-i-home
Continental Logo

2020 Annual Report

150 Years of Continental

2020 Annual Report

 

Forecast for Key Customer Sectors and Sales Regions

1 2 3 4 5

Forecast for production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
We currently expect the global production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles weighing less than 6 metric tons to normalize and increase by 9% to 12% year-on-year in 2021. This estimate takes into account the currently expected impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on production volumes in 2021. The current shortage of semiconductors due to our suppliers working at full capacity will limit growth in the first quarter of 2021 in particular. But for subsequent quarters too, impairments are to be expected. Compared with the very weak volumes in the previous year, however, growth in production is likely to be very strong in the first half of 2021. In the second half of the year, meanwhile, volumes are likely to return to the previous year’s levels based on current estimates.

In Europe, we expect an 11% to 14% rise in the production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in 2021. Volumes of electrified cars are likely to see another substantial increase as a result of the more stringent CO2 emissions standards in the EU and government incentives.

In North America, we currently expect production volumes for cars and light commercial vehicles of around 4 million units per quarter for 2021. This rise compared with the very weak prior-year figure should be 20% to 23% as a result.

In China, we expect growth in production volumes for cars and light commercial vehicles of 2% to 5% in 2021.

Forecast for production of medium and heavy commercial vehicles
According to our estimates, the global production of commercial vehicles weighing more than 6 metric tons will fall by 7% to 11% year-on-year in 2021.

We expect production in the USA and Europe to recover as a result of an increase in order intake. We therefore forecast a rise in production in North America of 26% to 30%, and a rise in Europe of 8% to 12%.

For China – after the strong growth in 2020 – we expect significantly lower demand in 2021 and a 28% to 32% decline in production volumes.

Forecast for replacement-tire markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
In 2021, we currently expect demand for replacement tires for cars and light commercial vehicles weighing less than 6 metric tons to continue to normalize. We expect global sales volumes for 2021 to rise by 6% to 8%.

For Europe and China, we currently expect volumes to be 6% to 8% higher than the previous year’s figures in both cases. In North America, we expect demand to be 4% to 6% higher than the previous year’s figures.

Forecast for replacement-tire markets for medium and heavy commercial vehicles
For 2021, we currently expect a year-on-year rise in demand for replacement tires for medium and heavy commercial vehicles of 4% to 6% in Europe and North America.

Forecast changes to vehicle production and sales volumes in the tire-replacement business in 2021 (compared to 2020)
  Vehicle production Replacement sales of tires
  of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles of medium and heavy commercial vehicles for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles for medium and heavy commercial vehicles
Europe 11% to 14% 8% to 12% 6% to 8% 4% to 6%
North America 20% to 23% 26% to 30% 4% to 6% 4% to 6%
China 2% to 5% -28% to -32% 6% to 8% n. a.
Worldwide 9% to 12% -7% to -11% 6% to 8% n. a.
Download Tabellenübersicht (MS-Excel)

Sources: Own estimates.