Forecast for production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
We currently expect the global production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles weighing less than 6 metric tons to continue to recover and increase by 2% to 4% year-on-year in 2023. This estimate takes into account current expectations regarding the availability of semiconductors, the impact of the war in Ukraine and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is still ongoing in certain countries.
We currently expect a global production volume of just under 42 million units in the first half of 2023, which should improve slightly in the second half of the year as a result of capacity expansions among semiconductor suppliers. Due to the still limited storage volumes in the supply chain, however, new events such as natural disasters could rapidly impact production and lead to renewed disruptions.
In Europe and North America, we anticipate a rise in the production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles of 3% to 5% in 2023. In China, due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, we expect only slight growth in production volumes for cars and light commercial vehicles of 0% to 2% in 2023.
Forecast for production of medium and heavy commercial vehicles
According to our estimates, the production of commercial vehicles weighing more than 6 metric tons in our core markets of Europe and North America will remain more or less constant year-on-year in 2023. We currently estimate that in both regions it will range from -2% to 2%.
Forecast for replacement-tire markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
In 2023, we currently expect a slight recovery in demand for replacement tires for cars and light commercial vehicles weighing less than 6 metric tons, in the range of 1% to 3%.
For Europe and North America, we currently expect volumes to be slightly above or below the previous year’s figures. In China, we expect a strong recovery in demand, which could be 14% to 16% higher than the weak prior-year figure.
Forecast for replacement-tire markets for medium and heavy commercial vehicles
For 2023, we currently expect demand for replacement tires for medium and heavy commercial vehicles in our core market of Europe to be in the range of -1% to 2%.
In North America, we currently expect a decline in demand of 5% to 2%.
Forecast for industrial production
For the eurozone, we currently expect industrial production to be on par with the previous year in 2023.
For the USA, in line with many economic forecasts, we anticipate negative industrial production from the second quarter of 2023 onward and a figure of between -2% and 0% for the year as a whole.
In China, we expect industrial production to increase by 4% to 6%.
| Changes to vehicle production, the tire-replacement business and industrial production in 2023 (compared with 2022) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles | Vehicle production | Tire-replacement business | ||
| Europe | 3% to 5% | –2% to 1% | ||
| North America | 3% to 5% | –1% to 2% | ||
| China | 0% to 2% | 14% to 16% | ||
| Worldwide | 2% to 4% | 1% to 3% | ||
| Medium and heavy commercial vehicles | Vehicle production | Tire-replacement business | ||
| Europe | –2% to 2% | –1% to 2% | ||
| North America | –2% to 2% | –5% to –2% | ||
| Industrial production | ||||
| Eurozone | –1% to 1% | |||
| USA | –2% to 0% | |||
| China | 4% to 6% | |||
Sources:
Vehicle production (Europe with Western, Central and Eastern Europe incl. Russia and Türkiye): S&P Global and own estimates.
Tire-replacement business (Europe with Western, Central and Eastern Europe (excl. Russia) and Türkiye): own estimates.
Industrial production: Bloomberg and own estimates.
