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2021 Annual Report

Progress Arises from Change.

2021 Annual Report

 

Forecast for Key Customer Sectors and Sales Regions

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Forecast for production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles

We currently expect the global production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles weighing less than 6 metric tons to recover and increase by 6% to 9% year-on-year in 2022. This estimate takes into account the currently expected impact of the semiconductor shortage and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on production volumes in 2022. We currently expect a production volume of around 20 million units per quarter in the first half of the year, which should improve slightly in the second half of the year as a result of capacity expansions among semiconductor suppliers. Due to the low storage volumes in the supply chain, however, new events such as natural disasters could rapidly impact production and lead to renewed disruptions.

In Europe, we anticipate a strong recovery in the production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles of 15% to 18% in 2022 compared with the low volumes of the previous year.

In North America, we currently expect production volumes for cars and light commercial vehicles of around 15 million units in 2022. A rise of 14% to 17% compared with the very weak prior-year figure should result.

In China, following an increase in growth in the previous year, we expect only slight growth in production volumes for cars and light commercial vehicles of 0% to 2% in 2022.

Forecast for production of medium and heavy commercial vehicles

According to our estimates, the global production of commercial vehicles weighing more than 6 metric tons will fall just short of the prior-year figure in 2022. We estimate a decline of between 0% and 3%.

We expect production in the USA and Europe to recover further as a result of an increase in order intake. We forecast a rise in production in North America of between 17% and 20% in 2022, and a rise in Europe of 5% to 8%.

For China – following the advance purchases in the first half of 2021 – we expect falling demand in 2022 and a 15% to 20% decline in production volumes.

Forecast for replacement-tire markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles

In 2022, we currently expect demand for replacement tires for cars and light commercial vehicles weighing less than 6 metric tons to remain static.

For Europe and North America, we currently expect volumes to be on a par with the previous year. In China, we expect demand to be up to 2% higher than the previous year’s figures.

Forecast for replacement-tire markets for medium and heavy commercial vehicles

For 2022, we currently expect demand for replacement tires for medium and heavy commercial vehicles to rise slightly in both Europe and North America, by between 0% and 2%.

Forecast changes to vehicle production and sales volumes in the tire-replacement business in 2022 (compared to 2021)
  Vehicle production Replacement sales of tires
  of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles of medium and heavy commercial vehicles for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles for medium and heavy commercial vehicles
Europe 15% to 18% 5% to 8% -1% to 1% 0% to 2%
North America 14% to 1% 17% to 20% -1% to 1% 0% to 2%
China 0% to 2% -15% to -20% 0% to 2% n. a.
Worldwide 6% to 9% -3% to 0% -1% to 1% n. a.
Download table overview (MS-Excel)

Sources: Own estimates.