Forecast for production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
We currently expect the global production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles weighing less than 6 metric tons to decline by 2% to 5% year-on-year in 2020. This estimate takes into account the expected impact of the coronavirus on production volumes in the first quarter of 2020. We currently assume that production will decline by more than 10% year-on-year. Our market forecast does not, however, include possible further disruptions to production and the supply chain as well as demand as a result of the continuing spread of the coronavirus. Such disruptions cannot be gauged at the current time.
For China, we anticipate that production volumes will fall by 5% in the current year if the consequences of the coronavirus outbreak remain limited to the first quarter of 2020. Based on current data, we expect production to decline by at least 30% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020. For the year as a whole, we currently expect a decrease in production of 5% to 10% compared to the previous year.
For Europe, we anticipate a decrease in production volumes of 3% to 5% in 2020. A recovery in demand is not yet in sight. Moreover, the entry into force of new CO2 emissions standards in the European Union (E.U.) are also likely to affect manufacturers’ production volumes in the current year. In North America, we currently expect production to decrease by 0% to 2%.
Forecast for production of medium and heavy commercial vehicles
According to our estimates, the global production of commercial vehicles weighing more than 6 metric tons will fall by 5% to 10% year-on-year in 2020.
We expect production in the U.S.A. and Europe to decline in particular as a result of a sharp decrease in order intake. We therefore forecast a slump in production in North America of 15% to 25%, and a decline in Europe of 5% to 15%.
In China, we likewise expect subdued demand due to the spread of the coronavirus and a decline in production volumes of 5% to 10%.
Forecast for replacement-tire markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
The low growth in sales volumes of replacement tires for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles weighing less than 6 metric tons is not expected to continue in 2020. On a global level, we anticipate a decline of 0% to 2%.
In China, quarantine measures to contain the coronavirus are expected to cause the number of kilometers driven to decline, with demand for replacement tires likely to fall sharply in the first quarter of 2020 as a result. In the following quarters, we expect the situation to stabilize at the previous year’s level. For 2020 as a whole, we anticipate a 5% to 10% decline in demand in China.
In Europe, we expect a 0% to -1% change in demand for replacement tires for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in 2020. In North America, we anticipate a slight increase of between 0% to 1%.
Forecast for replacement-tire markets for medium and heavy commercial vehicles
Currently, global demand for replacement tires for commercial vehicles weighing more than 6 metric tons is likely to decline by 0% to 2% in 2020.
In China in particular, demand in the first quarter of 2020 is likely to be affected by quarantine measures to contain the coronavirus. For 2020 as a whole, we expect demand for replacement tires for medium and heavy commercial vehicles to decrease by 5% to 10%.
In Europe, we anticipate a -1% to 1% change in sales volumes. We also expect demand in North America to change by -1% to 1%.
| 2020 forecast for changes compared to 2019 in vehicle production and sales volumes in the tire-replacement business | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vehicle production | Replacement sales of tires | |||
| of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles | of medium and heavy commercial vehicles | for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles | for medium and heavy commercial vehicles | |
| Europe | -3% to -5% | -5% to -15% | 0% to -1% | -1% to 1% |
| North America | 0% to -2% | -15% to -25% | 0% to 1% | -1% to 1% |
| China | -5% to -10% | -5% to -10% | -5% to -10% | -5% to -10% |
| Worldwide | -2% to -5% | -5% to -10% | 0% to -2% | 0% to -2% |
Sources: Own estimates.
