Forecast for production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
We currently expect the global production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles weighing less than 6 metric tons to be roughly on a par with the previous year and develop by -1% to 1%. In the first half of 2024, we expect a global production volume of around 44 million units, which should improve slightly in the second half of the year, particularly due to the momentum of the Chinese market. However, this outlook is subject to uncertainty due to the tense geopolitical situation and the uncertain development of demand, particularly in Europe.
In Europe, we anticipate a decline in the production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles of 1% to 3% in 2024. In North America, however, we expect an increase in production of 0% to 2%. In China, we expect an increase in production volumes for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles of 1% to 3% in 2024.
Forecast for production of medium and heavy commercial vehicles
According to our estimates, the production of commercial vehicles weighing more than 6 metric tons in our core markets of Europe and North America will decline significantly in 2024 – in the range of -9% to -7% in Europe and -6% to -4% in North America.
Forecast for replacement-tire markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
In 2024, we currently expect a slight recovery in demand for replacement tires for cars and light commercial vehicles weighing less than 6 metric tons in the range of 0% to 3%, following weak development in 2023.
Both in Europe and North America, we currently expect volumes to increase by 0% to 3%. In China, we expect a somewhat stronger recovery in demand of 2% to 5%.
Forecast for replacement-tire markets for medium and heavy commercial vehicles
In 2024, we currently expect demand for replacement tires for medium and heavy commercial vehicles in our core market of Europe to develop by -1% to 1%.
In North America, we currently expect a slightly stronger increase in demand of 2% to 4%.
Forecast for industrial production
In the eurozone, we currently expect industrial production to fall slightly by -2% to 0% in 2024 compared with the weak previous year.
In the USA, we expect industrial production to be on a par with the previous year.
In China, we expect a continued increase in industrial production of 4% to 6%.
| Changes to vehicle production, the tire-replacement business and industrial production in 2024 (compared with 2023) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles | Vehicle production | Tire-replacement business | ||
| Europe | -3% to -1% | 0% to 3% | ||
| North America | 0% to 2% | 0% to 3% | ||
| China | 1% to 3% | 2% to 5% | ||
| Worldwide | -1% to 1% | 0% to 3% | ||
| Medium and heavy commercial vehicles | Vehicle production | Tire-replacement business | ||
| Europe | -9% to -7% | –1% to 1% | ||
| North America | -6% to -4% | 2% to 4% | ||
| Industrial production | ||||
| Eurozone | –2% to 0% | |||
| USA | –1% to 1% | |||
| China | 4% to 6% | |||
Sources:
Vehicle production (Europe with Western, Central and Eastern Europe incl. Russia and Türkiye): S&P Global and own estimates.
Tire-replacement business (Europe with Western, Central and Eastern Europe (excl. Russia) and Türkiye): own estimates.
Industrial production: Bloomberg and own estimates.
